Fundamentalist candidate Saeed Jalili has announced his intention to compete until the end. In the 2013 presidential elections, he garnered approximately 4 to 5 million votes.
Tehran – Emergency Iranian presidential elections are set to take place today, with high expectations and speculation surrounding whether the elections will conclude in the first round or extend to a second round. For the elections to end in the first round, the leading candidate must secure more than 50% of the votes. The larger the number of participants, the less likely it is for any candidate to win outright in the first round.
Approximately 62 million individuals are eligible to vote in the Iranian presidential elections. According to the website “Moqa’ Khabar Fowri,” if at least 50% of voters participate, opinion polls suggest that the leading candidate would need around 15 to 16 million votes to achieve victory.
Based on the vote counts from previous elections, it is likely that none of the current candidates will reach this threshold unless undecided voters withdraw before the election starts.
Fundamentalist candidate Saeed Jalili has announced his intention to compete until the end. In the 2013 presidential elections, he garnered approximately 4 to 5 million votes. It remains unlikely that he will secure significantly more votes this time. Another fundamentalist candidate, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, received about 6 million votes in 2013, slightly more than Jalili. The total number of fundamentalist votes is not expected to exceed 19 million.
In contrast, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is counting on the votes of disillusioned supporters of the reformist movement, as well as the votes from Turkish populations in the provinces and regions of Azerbaijan. He hopes to secure a good percentage of votes from Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Baloch, and Lors. If non-Persian voters, especially Turkish and Azeri voters, turn out in significant numbers, he could receive around 10 million votes.
In the worst-case scenario, if the reformist crowd boycotts the elections, Pezeshkian might still receive about 4 million votes from the steadfast reformist voters. Assuming Jalili does not withdraw, today’s elections will likely extend to a second round, with Pezeshkian facing off against Qalibaf or Jalili. However, if Jalili withdraws in favor of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Qalibaf could potentially secure around 16 to 17 million votes, clinching a victory in the first round.
On the other hand, if voter turnout reaches 60%, the increase will likely come from non-orthodox voters, benefiting Pezeshkian. This would make it challenging for Qalibaf to achieve 50% of the votes, even if Jalili withdraws.
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Despite this, the chances of either Qalibaf or Pezeshkian winning in the first round are higher than those of the other candidates. For Pezeshkian to achieve victory, he must convince a significant portion of the silent reformist bloc that boycotting the elections and handing the government to fundamentalist Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is not in their best interest. In this scenario, Pezeshkian stands a chance of securing 16 to 17 million votes.
In the event of a second round, a segment of the reformist audience, sensing that their camp is on the path to an unprecedented victory, will participate, while Qalibaf’s supporters might not turn out for the runoff. It is noteworthy that candidates with long-standing visibility in high decision-making positions generally have lower chances of winning compared to their opponents in a second round.
