With the chance of it hitting in 2032, astronomers are closely monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory.
Astronomers Monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4: 2% Chance of Impact in 2032. Astronomers Monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4: 2% Chance of Impact in 2032. Astronomers across the globe are keeping a close watch on Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While the probability of impact is low, its size and trajectory have prompted an international warning system for planetary defense.
Key Facts about Asteroid 2024 YR4:
- Size: Estimated between 40 and 90 meters wide, large enough to cause localized damage if it were to impact.
- Speed: The asteroid is traveling at a speed of 38,000 miles per hour, and if it were to collide with Earth, it would release significant energy.
- Current Distance: As of January 31, 2025, the asteroid is located 30 million miles from Earth.
- Discovery: The asteroid was first detected on January 27, 2025, after passing near Earth on Christmas 2024.
- Next Observation Window: It will fade from view in April 2025, with the next opportunity for observation expected in mid-2028.
What Could Happen If It Hits?
While experts reassure that Asteroid 2024 YR4 does not pose an extinction-level threat, an impact could still cause significant localized damage, particularly if it were to strike a populated area. Potential impact zones include regions in the eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. However, scientists emphasize that the asteroid is more likely to hit the ocean, which would minimize the damage.
What’s Next?
NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are actively monitoring the asteroid using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. As the trajectory is refined, experts believe the probability of impact will continue to decrease.
NASA has already demonstrated that asteroid deflection is possible, with the successful kinetic impactor test conducted in 2022. Should the asteroid’s path become a more significant threat, this method could be used to alter its trajectory.
For now, experts urge the public to remain informed but not alarmed. With advancements in detection technology, warnings about near-Earth asteroids are expected to become more frequent in the future.
